Boston Bruins at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Viktor ArvidssonGoals1
- Pavel ZachaAssists2
- Viktor ArvidssonPoints2
Predators- Matthew WoodGoals2
- Filip ForsbergAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:33Luke Evangelista Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (25)3–6
- P315:32Viktor Arvidsson Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (18), Pavel Zacha (26)3–5
- P36:05Charlie McAvoy Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (15), Pavel Zacha (25)2–5
- P214:44Matthew Wood Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Roman Josi (31), Filip Forsberg (24)1–5
- P212:37Filip Forsberg Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (19), Ryan Ufko (1)1–4
- P210:18Erik Haula Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Brady Skjei (17), Steven Stamkos (18)1–3
- P23:30Morgan Geekie Goal (34) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (37), Elias Lindholm (28)1–2
- P21:24Matthew Wood Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (7)0–2
- P113:53Nicolas Hague Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ozzy Wiesblatt (4), Fedor Svechkov (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:53Nicolas Hague Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ozzy Wiesblatt (4), Fedor Svechkov (8)BOS 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 50% → 66% +16NSH 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P21:24Matthew Wood Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (7)BOS 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 68% → 82% +14NSH 68% → 82%+14 pts
- P23:30Morgan Geekie Goal (34) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (37), Elias Lindholm (28)BOS 1 – 2 NSH · BOS 17% → 32% +15BOS 17% → 32%+15 pts
- P210:18Erik Haula Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Brady Skjei (17), Steven Stamkos (18)BOS 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 70% → 85% +15NSH 70% → 85%+15 pts
- P212:37Filip Forsberg Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (19), Ryan Ufko (1)BOS 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 86% → 95% +9NSH 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 50%
- ML BOS -110 / NSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NSH: Elo 49.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NSH -100
- BOS -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.3 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −1 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +7 Elo | BOS 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.0%22nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 24th of 3211–16 | Road vs home | 15–1622nd of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 32 |
| 17th of 321503 | Elo rating | 145928th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–22 | 32–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 29–11 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders | 33–27 | 30–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.