Nashville Predators at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints1
Blue Jackets- Charlie CoyleGoals1
- Denton MateychukAssists1
- Charlie CoylePoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:07Charlie Coyle Goal (16) Deflected, assists: Damon Severson (20), Denton Mateychuk (15)2–3
- P31:52Sean Monahan Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P214:39Ryan O'Reilly Goal (22) Deflected, assists: none2–1
- P119:32Filip Forsberg Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (17), Luke Evangelista (38)1–1
- P114:23Adam Fantilli Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (29), Mason Marchment (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:23Adam Fantilli Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (29), Mason Marchment (16)NSH 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 70% +16CBJ 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P119:32Filip Forsberg Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (17), Luke Evangelista (38)NSH 1 – 1 CBJ · NSH 30% → 46% +17NSH 30% → 46%+17 pts
- P214:39Ryan O'Reilly Goal (22) Deflected, assists: noneNSH 2 – 1 CBJ · NSH 47% → 69% +22NSH 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P31:52Sean Monahan Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: noneNSH 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 27% → 52% +25CBJ 27% → 52%+25 pts
- P36:07Charlie Coyle Goal (16) Deflected, assists: Damon Severson (20), Denton Mateychuk (15)NSH 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 52% → 79% +27CBJ 52% → 79%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 54%
- ML NSH +110 / CBJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.4 pts
- CBJ: Elo 63.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -119
- NSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.1 – 3.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CBJ and NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +13 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +97 Elo | CBJ 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 49.8%15th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%12th of 32 |
| 21st of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3211–16 | Road vs home | 15–1315th of 32 |
| 7th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 32 |
| 29th of 321460 | Elo rating | 150616th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–29 | 33–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 27–17 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 30–30 | 30–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 4–1 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.