Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals2
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints3
Rangers- Gabe PerreaultGoals2
- Gabe PerreaultAssists1
- Gabe PerreaultPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:04Kirill Marchenko Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (19), Adam Fantilli (25)5–4
- P315:14Gabe Perreault Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (5), Vincent Trocheck (27)4–4
- P312:52Will Borgen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (6), J.T. Miller (24)4–3
- P30:54Gabe Perreault Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P30:30Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (21), Will Cuylle (16)4–1
- P211:54Mathieu Olivier Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (30), Damon Severson (18)4–0
- P23:27Sean Monahan Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: none3–0
- P115:32Kirill Marchenko Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (15), Charlie Coyle (29)2–0
- P15:50Adam Fantilli Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (28), Denton Mateychuk (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:50Adam Fantilli Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (28), Denton Mateychuk (14)CBJ 1 – 0 NYR · CBJ 50% → 65% +15CBJ 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P115:32Kirill Marchenko Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (15), Charlie Coyle (29)CBJ 2 – 0 NYR · CBJ 66% → 80% +14CBJ 66% → 80%+14 pts
- P312:52Will Borgen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (6), J.T. Miller (24)CBJ 4 – 3 NYR · NYR 2% → 14% +13NYR 2% → 14%+13 pts
- P315:14Gabe Perreault Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (5), Vincent Trocheck (27)CBJ 4 – 4 NYR · NYR 10% → 50% +40NYR 10% → 50%+40 pts
- OT1:04Kirill Marchenko Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (19), Adam Fantilli (25)CBJ 5 – 4 NYR · CBJ 50% → 92% +42CBJ 50% → 92%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 50%
- ML CBJ -110 / NYR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- NYR: Elo 52.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NYR -100
- CBJ -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 2.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +11 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +20 Elo | NYR 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 46.9%28th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%10th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 16th of 3214–16 | Road vs home | 7–2031st of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 32 |
| 16th of 321503 | Elo rating | 146525th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–26 | 29–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 26–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–6 NYR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.