Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Mason AppletonAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:32Alex DeBrincat Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (44)4–2
- P216:36Albert Johansson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (9), Mason Appleton (8)3–2
- P29:45Lucas Raymond Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (29), Andrew Copp (26)2–2
- P27:10Jonathan Marchessault Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (37)1–2
- P117:02Filip Forsberg Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (37), Roman Josi (30)1–1
- P14:51Emmitt Finnie Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (8), Mason Appleton (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:51Emmitt Finnie Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (8), Mason Appleton (7)DET 1 – 0 NSH · DET 50% → 65% +15DET 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P117:02Filip Forsberg Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (37), Roman Josi (30)DET 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 33% → 50% +17NSH 33% → 50%+17 pts
- P27:10Jonathan Marchessault Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (37)DET 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 50% → 69% +19NSH 50% → 69%+19 pts
- P29:45Lucas Raymond Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (29), Andrew Copp (26)DET 2 – 2 NSH · DET 31% → 50% +20DET 31% → 50%+20 pts
- P216:36Albert Johansson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (9), Mason Appleton (8)DET 3 – 2 NSH · DET 50% → 72% +22DET 50% → 72%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML DET -112 / NSH -108
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- DET: Elo 52.0%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- NSH +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.3 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −1 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +14 Elo | DET 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.0%23rd of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 10th of 3216–14 | Road vs home | 15–1519th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 32 |
| 15th of 321506 | Elo rating | 146427th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–30 | 31–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 29–31 | 30–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–2 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.