Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals1
- Ryan LeonardAssists1
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints1
Bruins- Viktor ArvidssonGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:36Elias Lindholm Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (52)1–3
- P34:28Viktor Arvidsson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (19), Hampus Lindholm (17)1–2
- P27:21Aliaksei Protas Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jakob Chychrun (28), Ryan Leonard (21)1–1
- P24:07Pavel Zacha Goal (16) Batted, assists: Charlie McAvoy (38), David Pastrnak (51)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:07Pavel Zacha Goal (16) Batted, assists: Charlie McAvoy (38), David Pastrnak (51)WSH 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 53% → 71% +18BOS 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P27:21Aliaksei Protas Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jakob Chychrun (28), Ryan Leonard (21)WSH 1 – 1 BOS · WSH 28% → 47% +19WSH 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P34:28Viktor Arvidsson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (19), Hampus Lindholm (17)WSH 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 52% → 78% +26BOS 52% → 78%+26 pts
- P319:36Elias Lindholm Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (52)WSH 1 – 3 BOS · BOS >99% → 100% +0BOS >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML WSH +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +4 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +20 Elo | BOS 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 47.4%26th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 25th of 3212–18 | Road vs home | 23–92nd of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 32 |
| 11th of 321511 | Elo rating | 149818th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–30 | 38–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 29–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–34 | 34–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.