Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints3
Avalanche- Brent BurnsGoals1
- Josh MansonAssists1
- Brent BurnsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:06Noel Acciari Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Elmer Soderblom (2), Connor Dewar (13)7–2
- P216:20Bryan Rust Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (35), Rickard Rakell (19)6–2
- P210:36Erik Karlsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (24)5–2
- P114:21Brent Burns Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Gavin Brindley (7), Josh Manson (23)4–2
- P113:43Elmer Soderblom Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (12), Erik Karlsson (42)4–1
- P113:00Evgeni Malkin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (14), Parker Wotherspoon (20)3–1
- P14:23Anthony Mantha Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Erik Karlsson (41)2–1
- P14:08Nathan MacKinnon Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (50), Cale Makar (49)1–1
- P13:01Evgeni Malkin Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (28), Noel Acciari (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:01Evgeni Malkin Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (28), Noel Acciari (10)PIT 1 – 0 COL · PIT 35% → 49% +15PIT 35% → 49%+15 pts
- P14:08Nathan MacKinnon Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (50), Cale Makar (49)PIT 1 – 1 COL · COL 51% → 65% +15COL 51% → 65%+15 pts
- P14:23Anthony Mantha Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Erik Karlsson (41)PIT 2 – 1 COL · PIT 35% → 50% +15PIT 35% → 50%+15 pts
- P113:00Evgeni Malkin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (14), Parker Wotherspoon (20)PIT 3 – 1 COL · PIT 52% → 68% +16PIT 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P114:21Brent Burns Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Gavin Brindley (7), Josh Manson (23)PIT 4 – 2 COL · COL 18% → 31% +13COL 18% → 31%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 66%
- ML PIT +180 / COL -218
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- COL: Elo 68.7%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- COL -192
- PIT +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 3.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +10 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +136 Elo | COL 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 70.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +1.31st of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 56.1%2nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 91.4%1st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3217–15 | Road vs home | 23–91st of 32 |
| 29th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Elo rating | 15901st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–27 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 33–31 |
| Underdog | 29–8 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 35–31 | 30–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–3 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.