Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:03Connor McDavid Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (60), Evan Bouchard (57)4–3
- P37:04Valeri Nichushkin Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (25)3–3
- P24:15Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (14), Zach Hyman (17)3–2
- P119:35Jack Roslovic Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (59)2–2
- P115:41Martin Necas Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P18:13Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (74), Evan Bouchard (56)1–1
- P10:32Ross Colton Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:41Martin Necas Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 1 – 2 COL · COL 59% → 75% +15COL 59% → 75%+15 pts
- P119:35Jack Roslovic Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (59)EDM 2 – 2 COL · EDM 25% → 41% +16EDM 25% → 41%+16 pts
- P24:15Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (14), Zach Hyman (17)EDM 3 – 2 COL · EDM 42% → 60% +19EDM 42% → 60%+19 pts
- P37:04Valeri Nichushkin Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (25)EDM 3 – 3 COL · COL 26% → 55% +30COL 26% → 55%+30 pts
- P39:03Connor McDavid Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (60), Evan Bouchard (57)EDM 4 – 3 COL · EDM 45% → 77% +32EDM 45% → 77%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 61%
- ML EDM +145 / COL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- COL: Elo 63.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -156
- EDM +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −4 | EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +96 Elo | COL 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +1.31st of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 56.1%2nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 91.5%1st of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3215–18 | Road vs home | 23–81st of 32 |
| 31st of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149826th of 32 |
| 7th of 321527 | Elo rating | 15941st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–40 | 33–29 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–36 | 32–29 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 40–24 | 29–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–4 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.