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Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

FinalESPN

Away

Oilers

31-25-8

4–2

at

Home

Golden Knights

29-21-14

EDM 50%VGK 50%

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T-Mobile Arena · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.

VGK favored EDM favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3VGK50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • P318:03Kasperi Kapanen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (73), Mattias Ekholm (28)4–2
  • P316:43Jack Eichel Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (47)3–2
  • P311:53Leon Draisaitl Goal (34) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (72)3–1
  • P32:34Vasily Podkolzin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
  • P213:09Noah Hanifin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (46), Ivan Barbashev (26)1–1
  • P23:21Trent Frederic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (55), Colton Dach (7)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P23:21Trent Frederic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (55), Colton Dach (7)EDM 1 – 0 VGK · EDM 50% → 68% +18
  2. P213:09Noah Hanifin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (46), Ivan Barbashev (26)EDM 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 29% → 50% +21
  3. P32:34Vasily Podkolzin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 2 – 1 VGK · EDM 50% → 75% +25
  4. P311:53Leon Draisaitl Goal (34) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (72)EDM 3 – 1 VGK · EDM 84% → 98% +14
  5. P316:43Jack Eichel Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (47)EDM 3 – 2 VGK · VGK <1% → 6% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Golden Knights 50%

Toss-upMiss
EDM 50%VGK 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
VGK 50%
ML EDM -110 / VGK -110
Pre-line forecast
VGK 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VGK 53%
Ratings vs. market
+3.5 pts
VGK: Elo 53.5%, market 50.0%
Fair odds
VGK -100
EDM -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.3 – 3.3 VGK
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMVGKWhy
Team rating15231509Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0+3EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVGK +24 EloVGK 53.5%
Market-implied ratingsVGK 53.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVGK 53.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastVGK 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatVGK
5th of 323.5Goals scored3.313th of 32
27th of 323.4Goals allowed3.219th of 32
13th of 32+0.1Margin+0.114th of 32
5th of 3252.5%Shot share53.5%4th of 32
30th of 3288.0%Save percentage88.0%31st of 32
19th of 324–6Last 104–619th of 32
21st of 3214–18Road vs home14–1626th of 32
29th of 321493Opponent Elo149528th of 32
7th of 321523Elo rating150912th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersGolden Knights
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMVGK
Puck line23–4024–39
Last 102–87–3
Favorite18–3613–37
Underdog5–411–2
Overs–unders40–2335–28
Overs–unders, last 1010–04–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 9–4 VGK in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.