Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mitch MarnerGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Mitch MarnerPoints3
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:11Tomas Hertl Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (45), Rasmus Andersson (25)4–3
- P316:36Mitch Marner Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (29), Shea Theodore (22)3–3
- P311:37Ivan Barbashev Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (24), Noah Hanifin (19)2–3
- P116:14Alex DeBrincat Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (45), Axel Sandin-Pellikka (13)1–3
- P115:15Simon Edvinsson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (27), Alex DeBrincat (30)1–2
- P15:58Emmitt Finnie Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (34), Simon Edvinsson (12)1–1
- P11:50Reilly Smith Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (44), Pavel Dorofeyev (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:50Reilly Smith Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (44), Pavel Dorofeyev (20)VGK 1 – 0 DET · VGK 45% → 60% +15VGK 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P15:58Emmitt Finnie Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (34), Simon Edvinsson (12)VGK 1 – 1 DET · DET 40% → 55% +15DET 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P115:15Simon Edvinsson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (27), Alex DeBrincat (30)VGK 1 – 2 DET · DET 54% → 70% +16DET 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P316:36Mitch Marner Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (29), Shea Theodore (22)VGK 3 – 3 DET · VGK 6% → 49% +43VGK 6% → 49%+43 pts
- OT2:11Tomas Hertl Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (45), Rasmus Andersson (25)VGK 4 – 3 DET · VGK 49% → 95% +46VGK 49% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML VGK +114 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- DET: Elo 58.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- VGK +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −5 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +56 Elo | DET 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 20th of 3214–18 | Road vs home | 18–128th of 32 |
| 28th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 14th of 321510 | Elo rating | 151015th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–38 | 31–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–37 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 10–1 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–27 | 29–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.