Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Michael McCarronGoals1
- Michael McCarronAssists1
- Michael McCarronPoints2
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Pavel DorofeyevAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:55Mitch Marner Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (21), Tomas Hertl (30)4–2
- P315:42Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (12), Michael McCarron (8)4–1
- P32:17Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (49), Braeden Bowman (16)3–1
- P28:25Michael McCarron Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (27), Quinn Hughes (56)3–0
- P28:07Zach Bogosian Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (15), Yakov Trenin (13)2–0
- P25:18Mats Zuccarello Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:18Mats Zuccarello Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 1 – 0 VGK · MIN 51% → 70% +18MIN 51% → 70%+18 pts
- P28:07Zach Bogosian Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (15), Yakov Trenin (13)MIN 2 – 0 VGK · MIN 70% → 85% +15MIN 70% → 85%+15 pts
- P28:25Michael McCarron Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (27), Quinn Hughes (56)MIN 3 – 0 VGK · MIN 85% → 94% +9MIN 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P32:17Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (49), Braeden Bowman (16)MIN 3 – 1 VGK · VGK 2% → 9% +7VGK 2% → 9%+7 pts
- P315:42Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (12), Michael McCarron (8)MIN 4 – 1 VGK · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML MIN -118 / VGK -102
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -107
- VGK +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −2 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +7 Elo | VGK 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.7% | Shot share | 53.4%4th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 88.0%31st of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 4th of 3218–12 | Road vs home | 14–1523rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 32 |
| 6th of 321537 | Elo rating | 151311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–30 | 24–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 13–37 |
| Underdog | 22–5 | 11–1 |
| Overs–unders | 37–25 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–9 VGK in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.
- Dec 29MIN 5 @ VGK 2Picked VGK 51%Miss
- Nov 16VGK 2 @ MIN 3Picked VGK 53%Miss
- May 1VGK 3 @ MIN 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 60%Hit
- Apr 29MIN 2 @ VGK 3PlayoffsPicked VGK 67%Hit
- Apr 26VGK 4 @ MIN 3PlayoffsPicked VGK 59%Hit
- Apr 24VGK 2 @ MIN 5PlayoffsPicked VGK 59%Miss
- Apr 22MIN 5 @ VGK 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 68%Miss
- Apr 20MIN 2 @ VGK 4PlayoffsPicked VGK 69%Hit