Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Jake GuentzelAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Wild- Brock FaberGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists3
- Matt BoldyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:41Kirill Kaprizov Goal (35) Backhand, assists: Brock Faber (26), Matt Boldy (37)1–5
- P36:53Quinn Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P217:10Yakov Trenin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (26)1–3
- P215:07Nikita Kucherov Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (22), Jake Guentzel (38)1–2
- P24:59Mats Zuccarello Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (55), Matt Boldy (36)0–2
- P13:46Brock Faber Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (26), Matt Boldy (35)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:46Brock Faber Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (26), Matt Boldy (35)TB 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 44% → 59% +15MIN 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P24:59Mats Zuccarello Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (55), Matt Boldy (36)TB 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 64% → 80% +16MIN 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P215:07Nikita Kucherov Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (22), Jake Guentzel (38)TB 1 – 2 MIN · TB 15% → 32% +17TB 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P217:10Yakov Trenin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (26)TB 1 – 3 MIN · MIN 69% → 86% +17MIN 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P36:53Quinn Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 1 – 4 MIN · MIN 93% → 99% +6MIN 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML TB -142 / MIN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- TB: Elo 53.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 3.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | 0 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +23 Elo | TB 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.0%3rd of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 1st of 3219–10 | Road vs home | 17–1415th of 32 |
| 24th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321582 | Elo rating | 15316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–29 | 31–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–29 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 11–0 | 21–5 |
| Overs–unders | 30–28 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.