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Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

Final/SOESPN+, Victory+, Altitude Sports

Away

Avalanche

42-10-9

5–4

at

Home

Stars

38-14-10

COL 53%DAL 47%

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American Airlines Center · ESPN+, Victory+, Altitude Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored COL favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%COL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Avalanche

Scoring summary

  • SO0:00Martin Necas Goal Snap Shot2–0
  • SO0:00Valeri Nichushkin Goal Snap Shot2–0
  • P319:45Valeri Nichushkin Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (48), Brock Nelson (23)4–4
  • P28:06Martin Necas Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (61), Gabriel Landeskog (20)3–4
  • P21:52Jamie Benn Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (12), Mavrik Bourque (15)2–4
  • P119:58Nathan MacKinnon Goal (42) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (47), Cale Makar (47)2–3
  • P116:07Justin Hryckowian Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (14)1–3
  • P110:39Wyatt Johnston Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (44), Jason Robertson (40)1–2
  • P17:11Miro Heiskanen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (39), Wyatt Johnston (33)1–1
  • P13:33Cale Makar Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (60), Martin Necas (46)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P17:11Miro Heiskanen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (39), Wyatt Johnston (33)COL 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 33% → 48% +15
  2. P110:39Wyatt Johnston Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (44), Jason Robertson (40)COL 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 48% → 63% +16
  3. P21:52Jamie Benn Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (12), Mavrik Bourque (15)COL 2 – 4 DAL · DAL 66% → 81% +15
  4. P28:06Martin Necas Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (61), Gabriel Landeskog (20)COL 3 – 4 DAL · COL 17% → 33% +16
  5. P319:45Valeri Nichushkin Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (48), Brock Nelson (23)COL 4 – 4 DAL · COL <1% → 50% +50

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Avalanche 53%

Toss-upHit
COL 53%DAL 47%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
COL 53%
ML COL -122 / DAL +102
Pre-line forecast
COL 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
COL 48%
Ratings vs. market
−4.5 pts
COL: Elo 48.1%, market 52.6%
Fair odds
COL -111
DAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
COL 2.8 – 2.7 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCOLDALWhy
Team rating15901565Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−30COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +13 EloDAL 51.9%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 54.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCOL 53.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCOL 52.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
COLStatDAL
1st of 323.8Goals scored3.56th of 32
1st of 322.5Goals allowed2.73rd of 32
1st of 32+1.4Margin+0.83rd of 32
2nd of 3256.2%Shot share49.6%17th of 32
1st of 3291.6%Save percentage90.4%8th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 1010–01st of 32
1st of 3219–11Road vs home18–105th of 32
26th of 321496Opponent Elo149331st of 32
1st of 321590Elo rating15653rd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AvalancheStars
1500155016001650NovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCOLDAL
Puck line33–2726–35
Last 106–45–5
Favorite32–2714–33
Underdog1–012–2
Overs–unders28–3230–31
Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

COL 10–11 DAL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 21.