Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Nico SturmGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints1
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Nathan MacKinnon Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Matt Boldy Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Valeri Nichushkin Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P312:39Nicolas Roy Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brett Kulak (10), Joel Kiviranta (6)2–2
- P37:01Nico Sturm Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (28)2–1
- P34:17Kirill Kaprizov Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (57), Joel Eriksson Ek (26)1–1
- P212:19Nathan MacKinnon Goal (43) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (30)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:19Nathan MacKinnon Goal (43) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (30)MIN 0 – 1 COL · COL 58% → 77% +19COL 58% → 77%+19 pts
- P34:17Kirill Kaprizov Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (57), Joel Eriksson Ek (26)MIN 1 – 1 COL · MIN 19% → 44% +25MIN 19% → 44%+25 pts
- P37:01Nico Sturm Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (28)MIN 2 – 1 COL · MIN 44% → 74% +30MIN 44% → 74%+30 pts
- P312:39Nicolas Roy Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brett Kulak (10), Joel Kiviranta (6)MIN 2 – 2 COL · COL 18% → 54% +37COL 18% → 54%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 62%
- ML MIN +154 / COL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- COL: Elo 64.4%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -165
- MIN +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1592 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +8 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +103 Elo | COL 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.91st of 32 |
| 6th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +1.31st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.7% | Shot share | 56.2%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 91.4%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3219–12 | Road vs home | 22–81st of 32 |
| 25th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 32 |
| 6th of 321541 | Elo rating | 15921st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–30 | 33–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–25 | 32–28 |
| Underdog | 22–5 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 37–26 | 29–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–7 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.