Colorado Avalanche at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints4
Kraken- Ryker EvansGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists1
- Ryker EvansPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:41Joel Kiviranta Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Josh Manson (22), Parker Kelly (11)5–1
- P217:11Nazem Kadri Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (26), Nathan MacKinnon (64)4–1
- P213:36Ryker Evans Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (26)3–1
- P118:48Nicolas Roy Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (25), Nathan MacKinnon (63)3–0
- P112:54Nathan MacKinnon Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (49), Devon Toews (15)2–0
- P13:45Martin Necas Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (14), Nathan MacKinnon (62)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:45Martin Necas Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (14), Nathan MacKinnon (62)COL 1 – 0 SEA · COL 64% → 77% +13COL 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P112:54Nathan MacKinnon Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (49), Devon Toews (15)COL 2 – 0 SEA · COL 77% → 88% +10COL 77% → 88%+10 pts
- P118:48Nicolas Roy Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (25), Nathan MacKinnon (63)COL 3 – 0 SEA · COL 88% → 95% +7COL 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P213:36Ryker Evans Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (26)COL 3 – 1 SEA · SEA 3% → 9% +6SEA 3% → 9%+6 pts
- P217:11Nazem Kadri Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (26), Nathan MacKinnon (64)COL 4 – 1 SEA · COL 92% → 98% +6COL 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML COL -205 / SEA +170
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- COL: Elo 62.4%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -181
- SEA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 2.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +2 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +88 Elo | COL 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 64.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.1% | Shot share | 46.3%29th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 1st of 3220–11 | Road vs home | 16–1721st of 32 |
| 25th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149332nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321591 | Elo rating | 147325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–30 | 40–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–30 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 30–33 | 25–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–1 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.