Nashville Predators at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists2
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints2
Kraken- Kaapo KakkoGoals1
- Shane WrightAssists1
- Kaapo KakkoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:55Steven Stamkos Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (10)4–2
- P214:25Ryan Ufko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (10), Ryan O'Reilly (39)3–2
- P210:19Reid Schaefer Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (10), Brady Skjei (18)2–2
- P24:14Tyson Jost Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (9), Jonathan Marchessault (9)1–2
- P19:46Matty Beniers Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (18), Vince Dunn (29)0–2
- P12:14Kaapo Kakko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:14Kaapo Kakko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (13)NSH 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 50% → 65% +15SEA 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P19:46Matty Beniers Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (18), Vince Dunn (29)NSH 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 66% → 79% +13SEA 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P24:14Tyson Jost Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (9), Jonathan Marchessault (9)NSH 1 – 2 SEA · NSH 17% → 32% +15NSH 17% → 32%+15 pts
- P210:19Reid Schaefer Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (10), Brady Skjei (18)NSH 2 – 2 SEA · NSH 30% → 50% +20NSH 30% → 50%+20 pts
- P214:25Ryan Ufko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (10), Ryan O'Reilly (39)NSH 3 – 2 SEA · NSH 50% → 71% +21NSH 50% → 71%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML NSH -110 / SEA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -100
- NSH -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.3 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +54 Elo | SEA 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 46.0%31st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 26th of 3211–18 | Road vs home | 16–1618th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 32 |
| 27th of 321462 | Elo rating | 147823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–29 | 40–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 29–17 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–32 | 25–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–4 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.