Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Zachary L'HeureuxGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Zachary L'HeureuxPoints1
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:08Matthew Wood Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (32), Steven Stamkos (20)2–3
- P30:16Josh Doan Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (14), Noah Ostlund (13)1–3
- P214:17Jason Zucker Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (27), Rasmus Dahlin (42)1–2
- P212:39Tage Thompson Goal (34) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (29)1–1
- P21:17Zachary L'Heureux Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (8), Ryan O'Reilly (38)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:17Zachary L'Heureux Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (8), Ryan O'Reilly (38)NSH 1 – 0 BUF · NSH 40% → 58% +18NSH 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P212:39Tage Thompson Goal (34) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (29)NSH 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 37% → 58% +21BUF 37% → 58%+21 pts
- P214:17Jason Zucker Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (27), Rasmus Dahlin (42)NSH 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 58% → 78% +20BUF 58% → 78%+20 pts
- P30:16Josh Doan Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (14), Noah Ostlund (13)NSH 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 79% → 93% +13BUF 79% → 93%+13 pts
- P316:08Matthew Wood Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (32), Steven Stamkos (20)NSH 2 – 3 BUF · NSH <1% → 6% +6NSH <1% → 6%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 62%
- ML NSH +154 / BUF -185
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- BUF: Elo 66.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -165
- NSH +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.6 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +121 Elo | BUF 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 61.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 48.1%24th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.9%4th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 25th of 3211–17 | Road vs home | 18–116th of 32 |
| 5th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 26th of 321463 | Elo rating | 15445th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–29 | 37–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 28–17 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 31–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–2 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.