Ottawa Senators at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Shane PintoAssists2
- Shane PintoPoints3
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists2
- Jordan EberlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:45Brandon Montour Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (28), Jordan Eberle (22)7–4
- P310:16Matty Beniers Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Cale Fleury (2), Jordan Eberle (21)7–3
- P37:24Brady Tkachuk Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (21)7–2
- P33:58Tim Stützle Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (32)6–2
- P32:42Warren Foegele Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (8)5–2
- P215:00Eeli Tolvanen Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: none4–2
- P210:09Michael Amadio Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (16), Nick Cousins (11)4–1
- P21:34Shane Pinto Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Artem Zub (17), Nick Cousins (10)3–1
- P113:35Dylan Cozens Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (20), Nick Jensen (13)2–1
- P19:19Tyler Kleven Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (15), Michael Amadio (16)1–1
- P18:45Jacob Melanson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Meyers (7), Ryan Winterton (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:45Jacob Melanson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Meyers (7), Ryan Winterton (13)OTT 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 41% → 57% +16SEA 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P19:19Tyler Kleven Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (15), Michael Amadio (16)OTT 1 – 1 SEA · OTT 43% → 59% +16OTT 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P113:35Dylan Cozens Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (20), Nick Jensen (13)OTT 2 – 1 SEA · OTT 58% → 73% +15OTT 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P21:34Shane Pinto Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Artem Zub (17), Nick Cousins (10)OTT 3 – 1 SEA · OTT 74% → 86% +12OTT 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P210:09Michael Amadio Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (16), Nick Cousins (11)OTT 4 – 1 SEA · OTT 89% → 96% +7OTT 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 59%
- ML OTT -162 / SEA +136
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 50.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -146
- SEA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 2.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +7 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT 0 Elo | OTT 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.9% | Shot share | 46.2%31st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%3rd of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 11th of 3216–16 | Road vs home | 16–1516th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149331st of 32 |
| 10th of 321517 | Elo rating | 148321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–34 | 40–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–29 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 35–26 | 24–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 4–1 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.