Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Rickard RakellGoals1
- Ryan SheaAssists2
- Ryan SheaPoints2
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals2
- Braeden BowmanAssists2
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:01Brayden McNabb Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (50)2–6
- P36:20Jack Eichel Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (28), Shea Theodore (24)2–5
- P34:35Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (48)2–4
- P216:22Ben Kindel Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Anthony Mantha (25), Ryan Shea (23)2–3
- P29:20Mitch Marner Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (22)1–3
- P28:26Rickard Rakell Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Bryan Rust (27), Ryan Shea (22)1–2
- P25:02Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (11), Braeden Bowman (18)0–2
- P18:41Colton Sissons Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:41Colton Sissons Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (17)PIT 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 60% → 74% +14VGK 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P28:26Rickard Rakell Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Bryan Rust (27), Ryan Shea (22)PIT 1 – 2 VGK · PIT 12% → 24% +13PIT 12% → 24%+13 pts
- P29:20Mitch Marner Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (22)PIT 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 76% → 89% +13VGK 76% → 89%+13 pts
- P216:22Ben Kindel Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Anthony Mantha (25), Ryan Shea (23)PIT 2 – 3 VGK · PIT 9% → 23% +14PIT 9% → 23%+14 pts
- P34:35Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (48)PIT 2 – 4 VGK · VGK 80% → 94% +14VGK 80% → 94%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 60%
- ML PIT +142 / VGK -170
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- VGK: Elo 55.5%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -152
- PIT +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +38 Elo | VGK 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 53.6%4th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 87.9%31st of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 9th of 3216–14 | Road vs home | 14–1727th of 32 |
| 30th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 32 |
| 15th of 321503 | Elo rating | 150414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–26 | 25–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 13–38 |
| Underdog | 28–7 | 12–2 |
| Overs–unders | 33–31 | 35–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.