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Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports, Victory+, Fox4

Away

Golden Knights

29-22-14

1–2

at

Home

Stars

40-14-10

VGK 43%DAL 57%

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American Airlines Center · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, Victory+, Fox4

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored VGK favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%VGK

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights
Stars

Scoring summary

  • P214:16Jamie Benn Goal (12) Batted, assists: Wyatt Johnston (34), Matt Duchene (18)1–2
  • P210:41Oskar Bäck Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Colin Blackwell (7), Thomas Harley (23)1–1
  • P21:31Jack Eichel Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (23), Ivan Barbashev (27)1–0

Turning points

The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P21:31Jack Eichel Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (23), Ivan Barbashev (27)VGK 1 – 0 DAL · VGK 44% → 62% +18
  2. P210:41Oskar Bäck Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Colin Blackwell (7), Thomas Harley (23)VGK 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 35% → 55% +20
  3. P214:16Jamie Benn Goal (12) Batted, assists: Wyatt Johnston (34), Matt Duchene (18)VGK 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 55% → 75% +20

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 57%

LeanHit
VGK 43%DAL 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
DAL 57%
ML VGK +124 / DAL -148
Pre-line forecast
DAL 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 63%
Ratings vs. market
+5.4 pts
DAL: Elo 62.6%, market 57.2%
Fair odds
DAL -134
VGK +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VGK 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVGKDALWhy
Team rating15051564Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2−2VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +90 EloDAL 62.6%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 57.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 58.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 57.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
VGKStatDAL
13th of 323.3Goals scored3.57th of 32
21st of 323.2Goals allowed2.72nd of 32
15th of 32+0.1Margin+0.73rd of 32
4th of 3253.5%Shot share49.7%17th of 32
31st of 3287.9%Save percentage90.3%9th of 32
18th of 324–6Last 109–11st of 32
19th of 3215–18Road vs home19–116th of 32
27th of 321495Opponent Elo149332nd of 32
15th of 321505Elo rating15644th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Golden KnightsStars
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVGKDAL
Puck line24–4027–36
Last 107–36–4
Favorite13–3814–34
Underdog11–213–2
Overs–unders35–2932–31
Overs–unders, last 104–67–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VGK 7–7 DAL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.