Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists2
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints2
Stars- Mavrik BourqueGoals1
- Mavrik BourqueAssists1
- Mavrik BourquePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:22Miro Heiskanen Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (17)3–4
- P318:40Connor Bedard Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (17), Frank Nazar (21)3–3
- P39:40Justin Hryckowian Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mavrik Bourque (16), Esa Lindell (20)2–3
- P30:42Mavrik Bourque Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Michael Bunting (19)2–2
- P116:40Nathan Bastian Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Lian Bichsel (3), Oskar Bäck (5)2–1
- P18:41Sam Rinzel Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (16), Oliver Moore (14)2–0
- P16:59Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Artyom Levshunov (21), Frank Nazar (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:40Nathan Bastian Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Lian Bichsel (3), Oskar Bäck (5)CHI 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 37% → 54% +17DAL 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P30:42Mavrik Bourque Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Michael Bunting (19)CHI 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 39% → 64% +25DAL 39% → 64%+25 pts
- P39:40Justin Hryckowian Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mavrik Bourque (16), Esa Lindell (20)CHI 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 60% → 87% +27DAL 60% → 87%+27 pts
- P318:40Connor Bedard Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (17), Frank Nazar (21)CHI 3 – 3 DAL · CHI <1% → 46% +46CHI <1% → 46%+46 pts
- OT0:22Miro Heiskanen Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (17)CHI 3 – 4 DAL · DAL 57% → 93% +36DAL 57% → 93%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 73%
- ML CHI +260 / DAL -325
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 76.4%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -275
- CHI +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.0 – 3.5 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +6 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +204 Elo | DAL 76.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 72.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.5% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.3%8th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 28th of 3211–19 | Road vs home | 18–117th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321416 | Elo rating | 15634th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–23 | 27–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 14–33 |
| Underdog | 39–20 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 26–36 | 31–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–6 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.