Vancouver Canucks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals2
- Marcus PetterssonAssists2
- Brock BoeserPoints2
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Ilya MikheyevAssists1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:44Brock Boeser Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (12), Filip Hronek (30)6–3
- P318:34Max Sasson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P32:40Brock Boeser Goal (14) Batted, assists: Linus Karlsson (15), Jake DeBrusk (18)4–3
- P219:17Frank Nazar Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Alex Vlasic (14), Ilya Mikheyev (13)3–3
- P112:00Ilya Mikheyev Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (13), Tyler Bertuzzi (20)3–2
- P16:32Teddy Blueger Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (13), Max Sasson (3)3–1
- P12:32Jake DeBrusk Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Zeev Buium (16), Elias Pettersson (25)2–1
- P12:08Drew O'Connor Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Tom Willander (13), Marcus Pettersson (12)1–1
- P11:08Ryan Donato Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Frank Nazar (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:32Jake DeBrusk Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Zeev Buium (16), Elias Pettersson (25)VAN 2 – 1 CHI · VAN 42% → 57% +15VAN 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P16:32Teddy Blueger Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (13), Max Sasson (3)VAN 3 – 1 CHI · VAN 57% → 72% +14VAN 57% → 72%+14 pts
- P112:00Ilya Mikheyev Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (13), Tyler Bertuzzi (20)VAN 3 – 2 CHI · CHI 26% → 41% +15CHI 26% → 41%+15 pts
- P219:17Frank Nazar Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Alex Vlasic (14), Ilya Mikheyev (13)VAN 3 – 3 CHI · CHI 31% → 55% +24CHI 31% → 55%+24 pts
- P32:40Brock Boeser Goal (14) Batted, assists: Linus Karlsson (15), Jake DeBrusk (18)VAN 4 – 3 CHI · VAN 46% → 71% +26VAN 46% → 71%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blackhawks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CHI 58%
- ML VAN +130 / CHI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- CHI: Elo 54.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -140
- VAN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −16 | VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +29 Elo | CHI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 45.5%32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 27th of 3212–19 | Road vs home | 12–1929th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321412 | Elo rating | 142131st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–32 | 39–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 28–23 | 39–20 |
| Overs–unders | 34–27 | 25–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 7–1 CHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.