Chicago Blackhawks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan GreeneGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints2
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:06Mark Scheifele Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (12)2–3
- P319:21Cole Perfetti Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (45), Logan Stanley (12)2–2
- P30:32Ryan Greene Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (32), Sam Rinzel (9)2–1
- P118:48Teuvo Teravainen Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (18), Connor Bedard (31)1–1
- P13:59Dylan Samberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (44), Kyle Connor (41)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:59Dylan Samberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (44), Kyle Connor (41)CHI 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 57% → 71% +14WPG 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P118:48Teuvo Teravainen Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (18), Connor Bedard (31)CHI 1 – 1 WPG · CHI 28% → 44% +16CHI 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P30:32Ryan Greene Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (32), Sam Rinzel (9)CHI 2 – 1 WPG · CHI 46% → 70% +25CHI 46% → 70%+25 pts
- P319:21Cole Perfetti Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (45), Logan Stanley (12)CHI 2 – 2 WPG · WPG <1% → 51% +51WPG <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT2:06Mark Scheifele Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (12)CHI 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 52% → 96% +44WPG 52% → 96%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 57%
- ML CHI +124 / WPG -148
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- WPG: Elo 64.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -134
- CHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | 0 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +105 Elo | WPG 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 63.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.6% | Shot share | 48.4%23rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%20th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 32 |
| 29th of 3211–18 | Road vs home | 12–1628th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 31st of 321423 | Elo rating | 149820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–22 | 27–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 11–25 |
| Underdog | 38–20 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–35 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–7 WPG in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.