Pittsburgh Penguins at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Anthony ManthaGoals1
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Anthony ManthaPoints2
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals2
- Alexander KerfootAssists1
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:03Noel Acciari Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (19), Erik Karlsson (40)4–3
- P34:17Ian Cole Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (2), Kevin Stenlund (11)3–3
- P31:24Bryan Rust Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (18), Egor Chinakhov (13)3–2
- P217:26Thomas Novak Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (18), Anthony Mantha (26)2–2
- P214:48Anthony Mantha Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (39), Egor Chinakhov (12)1–2
- P16:37Dylan Guenther Goal (33) Deflected, assists: none0–2
- P15:06Dylan Guenther Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:06Dylan Guenther Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: nonePIT 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 58% → 72% +14UTA 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P217:26Thomas Novak Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (18), Anthony Mantha (26)PIT 2 – 2 UTA · PIT 23% → 45% +21PIT 23% → 45%+21 pts
- P31:24Bryan Rust Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (18), Egor Chinakhov (13)PIT 3 – 2 UTA · PIT 45% → 70% +25PIT 45% → 70%+25 pts
- P34:17Ian Cole Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (2), Kevin Stenlund (11)PIT 3 – 3 UTA · UTA 27% → 54% +27UTA 27% → 54%+27 pts
- P38:03Noel Acciari Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (19), Erik Karlsson (40)PIT 4 – 3 UTA · PIT 46% → 77% +30PIT 46% → 77%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 58%
- ML PIT +130 / UTA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- UTA: Elo 57.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +50 Elo | UTA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.37th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 51.6%9th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%20th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 10th of 3216–15 | Road vs home | 18–138th of 32 |
| 31st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321498 | Elo rating | 151112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–27 | 30–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 28–8 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 34–31 | 32–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.
