Chicago Blackhawks at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
Mammoth- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- Mikhail SergachevAssists1
- JJ PeterkaPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:57Connor Bedard Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (15), Nick Lardis (3)3–2
- P313:45JJ Peterka Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (12)2–2
- P39:17Frank Nazar Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (19), Tyler Bertuzzi (21)2–1
- P32:18Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (35), Frank Nazar (22)1–1
- P25:47Dylan Guenther Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (12), Mikhail Sergachev (33)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:47Dylan Guenther Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (12), Mikhail Sergachev (33)CHI 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 63% → 79% +16UTA 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P32:18Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (35), Frank Nazar (22)CHI 1 – 1 UTA · CHI 18% → 41% +22CHI 18% → 41%+22 pts
- P39:17Frank Nazar Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (19), Tyler Bertuzzi (21)CHI 2 – 1 UTA · CHI 43% → 75% +32CHI 43% → 75%+32 pts
- P313:45JJ Peterka Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (12)CHI 2 – 2 UTA · UTA 16% → 56% +39UTA 16% → 56%+39 pts
- OT3:57Connor Bedard Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (15), Nick Lardis (3)CHI 3 – 2 UTA · CHI 48% → >99% +52CHI 48% → >99%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 67%
- ML CHI +190 / UTA -230
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 67.7%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- UTA -202
- CHI +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.3 – 3.2 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +4 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +128 Elo | UTA 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 67.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.38th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.5% | Shot share | 51.5%9th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.6%20th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 29th of 3211–20 | Road vs home | 18–128th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 31st of 321418 | Elo rating | 151511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–23 | 30–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 41–20 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 27–37 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–3 UTA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.
