Utah Mammoth at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Barrett HaytonGoals1
- Nick DeSimoneAssists1
- Barrett HaytonPoints1
Blackhawks- Andre BurakovskyGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:36Frank Nazar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (18), Connor Bedard (34)2–3
- P215:35Andre Burakovsky Goal (11) Cradle, assists: Connor Bedard (33), Ryan Greene (15)2–2
- P116:26Dylan Guenther Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (45), Nick Schmaltz (35)2–1
- P113:46Andrew Mangiapane Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Ryan Donato (13), Ilya Mikheyev (14)1–1
- P19:43Barrett Hayton Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Nick DeSimone (5), Ian Cole (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:43Barrett Hayton Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Nick DeSimone (5), Ian Cole (16)UTA 1 – 0 CHI · UTA 66% → 79% +13UTA 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P113:46Andrew Mangiapane Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Ryan Donato (13), Ilya Mikheyev (14)UTA 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 21% → 35% +14CHI 21% → 35%+14 pts
- P116:26Dylan Guenther Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (45), Nick Schmaltz (35)UTA 2 – 1 CHI · UTA 65% → 79% +14UTA 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P215:35Andre Burakovsky Goal (11) Cradle, assists: Connor Bedard (33), Ryan Greene (15)UTA 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 19% → 39% +19CHI 19% → 39%+19 pts
- OT2:36Frank Nazar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (18), Connor Bedard (34)UTA 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 46% → 96% +49CHI 46% → 96%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 68%
- ML UTA -238 / CHI +195
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 60.7%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- UTA -208
- CHI +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +11 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · CHI: Drew Commesso: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +76 Elo | UTA 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 45.4%32nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 15th of 3216–17 | Road vs home | 12–2029th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 8th of 321522 | Elo rating | 141532nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–33 | 40–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–25 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 40–20 |
| Overs–unders | 32–31 | 27–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–3 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.
