Utah Mammoth at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Logan CooleyGoals2
- Clayton KellerAssists2
- Logan CooleyPoints2
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists2
- Damon SeversonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:08Logan Cooley Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (44), John Marino (26)5–4
- P314:08Mason Marchment Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Kirill Marchenko (32), Adam Fantilli (26)4–4
- P313:38Adam Fantilli Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Mason Marchment (17), Kirill Marchenko (31)4–3
- P34:54Logan Cooley Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Lawson Crouse (16), Ian Cole (15)4–2
- P33:00Alexander Kerfoot Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (11), MacKenzie Weegar (19)3–2
- P216:03Mathieu Olivier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (33), Damon Severson (21)2–2
- P212:12Dylan Guenther Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Clayton Keller (43), Nick DeSimone (4)2–1
- P119:25Damon Severson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (32), Mathieu Olivier (10)1–1
- P17:25Michael Carcone Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (10), Alexander Kerfoot (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:12Dylan Guenther Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Clayton Keller (43), Nick DeSimone (4)UTA 2 – 1 CBJ · UTA 52% → 72% +20UTA 52% → 72%+20 pts
- P216:03Mathieu Olivier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (33), Damon Severson (21)UTA 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 27% → 48% +22CBJ 27% → 48%+22 pts
- P33:00Alexander Kerfoot Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (11), MacKenzie Weegar (19)UTA 3 – 2 CBJ · UTA 51% → 76% +25UTA 51% → 76%+25 pts
- P314:08Mason Marchment Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Kirill Marchenko (32), Adam Fantilli (26)UTA 4 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 12% → 49% +37CBJ 12% → 49%+37 pts
- OT2:08Logan Cooley Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (44), John Marino (26)UTA 5 – 4 CBJ · UTA 51% → 95% +45UTA 51% → 95%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 53%
- ML UTA -122 / CBJ +102
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- UTA: Elo 49.0%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- UTA -111
- CBJ +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −13 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +7 Elo | CBJ 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 49.9%15th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%10th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3215–17 | Road vs home | 17–1311th of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150021st of 32 |
| 9th of 321519 | Elo rating | 151011th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–32 | 34–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–24 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 30–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–2 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.
