Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Niko MikkolaGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists2
- Aaron EkbladPoints2
Blue Jackets- Mathieu OlivierGoals2
- Ivan ProvorovAssists2
- Ivan ProvorovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:18Mathieu Olivier Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (31), Ivan Provorov (17)2–4
- P314:44Sam Bennett Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (22), Matthew Tkachuk (9)2–3
- P39:08Niko Mikkola Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (21), Sam Reinhart (30)1–3
- P31:41Boone Jenner Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (13)0–3
- P210:50Mathieu Olivier Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Egor Zamula (3), Ivan Provorov (16)0–2
- P15:08Ivan Provorov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (18), Kirill Marchenko (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:08Ivan Provorov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (18), Kirill Marchenko (30)FLA 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 66% +15CBJ 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P210:50Mathieu Olivier Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Egor Zamula (3), Ivan Provorov (16)FLA 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 71% → 86% +15CBJ 71% → 86%+15 pts
- P31:41Boone Jenner Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (13)FLA 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 91% → 98% +7CBJ 91% → 98%+7 pts
- P39:08Niko Mikkola Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (21), Sam Reinhart (30)FLA 1 – 3 CBJ · FLA <1% → 4% +4FLA <1% → 4%+4 pts
- P314:44Sam Bennett Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (22), Matthew Tkachuk (9)FLA 2 – 3 CBJ · FLA <1% → 11% +10FLA <1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 51%
- ML FLA -105 / CBJ -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- CBJ: Elo 56.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -104
- FLA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.2 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +13 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +47 Elo | CBJ 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 49.9%15th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3214–14 | Road vs home | 16–1315th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150021st of 32 |
| 8th of 321519 | Elo rating | 150715th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–41 | 33–27 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–36 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–25 | 30–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 7–0 CBJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.