Florida Panthers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Anton LundellGoals1
- Evan RodriguesAssists1
- Anton LundellPoints1
Devils- Dougie HamiltonGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Dougie HamiltonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:20Simon Nemec Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (15), Jack Hughes (29)1–5
- P316:23Dawson Mercer Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P28:13Cody Glass Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Lenni Hameenaho (3), Dougie Hamilton (16)1–3
- P21:35Dougie Hamilton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (28), Jesper Bratt (31)1–2
- P114:37Anton Lundell Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Evan Rodrigues (17), Uvis Balinskis (10)1–1
- P112:10Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:10Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (14)FLA 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 48% → 64% +16NJ 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P114:37Anton Lundell Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Evan Rodrigues (17), Uvis Balinskis (10)FLA 1 – 1 NJ · FLA 35% → 52% +16FLA 35% → 52%+16 pts
- P21:35Dougie Hamilton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (28), Jesper Bratt (31)FLA 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 48% → 66% +18NJ 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P28:13Cody Glass Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Lenni Hameenaho (3), Dougie Hamilton (16)FLA 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 68% → 83% +15NJ 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P316:23Dawson Mercer Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 1 – 4 NJ · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 52%
- ML FLA -120 / NJ +100
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- FLA: Elo 53.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -109
- NJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.8 – 2.7 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | 0 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +26 Elo | FLA 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 32 |
| 21st of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 32 |
| 11th of 3214–13 | Road vs home | 13–1526th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 32 |
| 8th of 321525 | Elo rating | 146725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–40 | 20–40 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 9–35 | 6–30 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–25 | 23–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 4–4 NJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.