Utah Mammoth at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:39Ryan Hartman Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Nick Foligno (9), Kirill Kaprizov (41)0–5
- P36:09Danila Yurov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (19), Quinn Hughes (58)0–4
- P32:09Bobby Brink Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P28:43Matt Boldy Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (27), Joel Eriksson Ek (27)0–2
- P114:10Kirill Kaprizov Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:10Kirill Kaprizov Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (18)UTA 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 58% → 73% +15MIN 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P28:43Matt Boldy Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (27), Joel Eriksson Ek (27)UTA 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 75% → 88% +13MIN 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P32:09Bobby Brink Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneUTA 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 93% → 98% +5MIN 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P36:09Danila Yurov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (19), Quinn Hughes (58)UTA 0 – 4 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +1MIN >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P318:39Ryan Hartman Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Nick Foligno (9), Kirill Kaprizov (41)UTA 0 – 5 MIN · MIN 100% → 100% +0MIN 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML UTA +136 / MIN -162
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -146
- UTA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.5 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +82 Elo | MIN 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 48.7%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 91.1%2nd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 18th of 3216–18 | Road vs home | 18–1412th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 10th of 321519 | Elo rating | 15396th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–34 | 34–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–26 | 11–25 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 23–5 |
| Overs–unders | 32–32 | 37–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 5–1 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.
