Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists1
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints1
Blue Jackets- Charlie CoyleGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists3
- Charlie CoylePoints4
Scoring summary
- P37:38Mathieu Olivier Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (38), Cole Sillinger (22)1–5
- P218:03Denton Mateychuk Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (22)1–4
- P217:29Danton Heinen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (37), Cole Sillinger (21)1–3
- P214:05Andrei Svechnikov Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (33), Alexander Nikishin (17)1–2
- P119:05Charlie Coyle Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (30), Zach Werenski (49)0–2
- P15:25Mason Marchment Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (36), Adam Fantilli (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:25Mason Marchment Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (36), Adam Fantilli (29)CAR 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 48% → 63% +15CBJ 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P119:05Charlie Coyle Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (30), Zach Werenski (49)CAR 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 65% → 80% +14CBJ 65% → 80%+14 pts
- P214:05Andrei Svechnikov Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (33), Alexander Nikishin (17)CAR 1 – 2 CBJ · CAR 14% → 30% +16CAR 14% → 30%+16 pts
- P217:29Danton Heinen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (37), Cole Sillinger (21)CAR 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 71% → 88% +16CBJ 71% → 88%+16 pts
- P218:03Denton Mateychuk Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (22)CAR 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 88% → 96% +8CBJ 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 52%
- ML CAR -120 / CBJ +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 51.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -109
- CBJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +14 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +8 Elo | CAR 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.3% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%14th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 5th of 3218–13 | Road vs home | 17–1513th of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 4th of 321564 | Elo rating | 151211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–41 | 36–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 28–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–30 | 33–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 6–3 CBJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.