Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals1
- Damon SeversonAssists1
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints1
Flyers- Alex BumpGoals1
- Emil AndraeAssists1
- Alex BumpPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kirill Marchenko Goal Backhand1–0
- P110:24Alex Bump Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (11), Christian Dvorak (26)1–1
- P14:21Kirill Marchenko Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (28), Damon Severson (22)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:21Kirill Marchenko Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (28), Damon Severson (22)CBJ 1 – 0 PHI · CBJ 56% → 70% +14CBJ 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P110:24Alex Bump Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (11), Christian Dvorak (26)CBJ 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 29% → 44% +15PHI 29% → 44%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 56%
- ML CBJ -142 / PHI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- CBJ: Elo 52.0%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -129
- PHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 2.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +7 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +14 Elo | CBJ 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.6%28th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 17th of 3216–17 | Road vs home | 15–1827th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321510 | Elo rating | 146827th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–29 | 40–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–16 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 28–13 | 31–14 |
| Overs–unders | 33–32 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 5–4 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.