New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals2
- Vincent TrocheckAssists3
- Mika ZibanejadPoints3
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals1
- Luke GlendeningAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:28Sean Couturier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Grebenkin (10), Luke Glendening (5)6–2
- P219:00Tye Kartye Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (15), Noah Laba (12)6–1
- P218:40Mika Zibanejad Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (7), Vincent Trocheck (31)5–1
- P26:40Gabe Perreault Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (30), Adam Fox (26)4–1
- P23:54Matvei Michkov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (20), Trevor Zegras (31)3–1
- P119:23Alexis Lafrenière Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (32), Vincent Trocheck (29)3–0
- P113:07Mika Zibanejad Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (24), Vladislav Gavrikov (14)2–0
- P11:04Noah Laba Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Robertson (8), Tye Kartye (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:04Noah Laba Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Robertson (8), Tye Kartye (7)NYR 1 – 0 PHI · NYR 44% → 58% +15NYR 44% → 58%+15 pts
- P113:07Mika Zibanejad Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (24), Vladislav Gavrikov (14)NYR 2 – 0 PHI · NYR 61% → 75% +15NYR 61% → 75%+15 pts
- P119:23Alexis Lafrenière Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (32), Vincent Trocheck (29)NYR 3 – 0 PHI · NYR 78% → 88% +11NYR 78% → 88%+11 pts
- P23:54Matvei Michkov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (20), Trevor Zegras (31)NYR 3 – 1 PHI · PHI 10% → 21% +11PHI 10% → 21%+11 pts
- P26:40Gabe Perreault Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (30), Adam Fox (26)NYR 4 – 1 PHI · NYR 81% → 91% +11NYR 81% → 91%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML NYR +120 / PHI -142
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -129
- NYR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.6 – 2.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +8 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +36 Elo | PHI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.7%25th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 18th of 3215–17 | Road vs home | 14–1726th of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 32 |
| 27th of 321463 | Elo rating | 146526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–32 | 38–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 24–12 | 29–14 |
| Overs–unders | 29–33 | 33–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 6–4 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.