Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Easton CowanGoals1
- Matthew KniesAssists1
- Matias MaccelliPoints1
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals2
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- Mika ZibanejadPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:09Will Cuylle Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (23), Mika Zibanejad (31)2–6
- P311:19Mika Zibanejad Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (22), Adam Fox (25)2–5
- P310:27Jaroslav Chmelar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P35:38Alexis Lafrenière Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (30)2–3
- P27:29Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (7), Jonny Brodzinski (7)2–2
- P25:27Easton Cowan Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (35), John Tavares (30)2–1
- P16:45Will Cuylle Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (10)1–1
- P10:13Matias Maccelli Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (37)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:13Matias Maccelli Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (37)TOR 1 – 0 NYR · TOR 46% → 60% +14TOR 46% → 60%+14 pts
- P16:45Will Cuylle Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (10)TOR 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 39% → 54% +15NYR 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P25:27Easton Cowan Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (35), John Tavares (30)TOR 2 – 1 NYR · TOR 47% → 66% +19TOR 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P27:29Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (7), Jonny Brodzinski (7)TOR 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 34% → 53% +19NYR 34% → 53%+19 pts
- P35:38Alexis Lafrenière Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (30)TOR 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 52% → 79% +27NYR 52% → 79%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 54%
- ML TOR +110 / NYR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- NYR: Elo 56.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.6 – 2.9 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +9 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +47 Elo | NYR 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.1% | Shot share | 47.0%27th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 28th of 3211–18 | Road vs home | 7–2131st of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 32 |
| 19th of 321496 | Elo rating | 146327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–37 | 29–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 5–20 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 35–27 | 27–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–2 NYR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.