Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Dakota JoshuaAssists1
- William NylanderPoints1
Devils- Arseny GritsyukGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists2
- Arseny GritsyukPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jesper Bratt Goal Backhand0–2
- SO0:00Paul Cotter Goal Backhand0–2
- P317:39Connor Brown Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (15), Luke Hughes (23)3–3
- P313:50Matthew Knies Goal (16) Batted, assists: John Tavares (29), Troy Stecher (9)3–2
- P26:06Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (32), Nico Hischier (25)2–2
- P23:20William Nylander Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Easton Cowan (11), Auston Matthews (26)2–1
- P17:55Timo Meier Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (24), Dawson Mercer (18)1–1
- P15:26Matias Maccelli Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (5), Simon Benoit (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:55Timo Meier Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (24), Dawson Mercer (18)TOR 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 38% → 53% +15NJ 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P23:20William Nylander Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Easton Cowan (11), Auston Matthews (26)TOR 2 – 1 NJ · TOR 47% → 66% +18TOR 47% → 66%+18 pts
- P26:06Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (32), Nico Hischier (25)TOR 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 34% → 52% +19NJ 34% → 52%+19 pts
- P313:50Matthew Knies Goal (16) Batted, assists: John Tavares (29), Troy Stecher (9)TOR 3 – 2 NJ · TOR 49% → 87% +38TOR 49% → 87%+38 pts
- P317:39Connor Brown Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (15), Luke Hughes (23)TOR 3 – 3 NJ · NJ 3% → 51% +47NJ 3% → 51%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML TOR +105 / NJ -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 46.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.7 – 2.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +26 Elo | TOR 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 51.5%10th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.8%18th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3211–17 | Road vs home | 14–1522nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 32 |
| 20th of 321498 | Elo rating | 147224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–37 | 21–40 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 6–30 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–27 | 24–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–3 NJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 8.