New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Will BorgenGoals1
- Braden SchneiderAssists1
- Will BorgenPoints1
Devils- Jack HughesGoals3
- Jesper BrattAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:28Jack Hughes Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (17), Johnathan Kovacevic (4)3–6
- P316:56Jack Hughes Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (16)3–5
- P38:05Nico Hischier Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (34), Jack Hughes (30)3–4
- P216:53Will Cuylle Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (11), Taylor Raddysh (8)3–3
- P215:52Jack Hughes Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (33), Dougie Hamilton (17)2–3
- P119:47Dawson Mercer Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (24), Arseny Gritsyuk (16)2–2
- P18:36Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Laba (11), Tye Kartye (6)2–1
- P16:26Will Borgen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (28)1–1
- P11:06Jesper Bratt Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Cody Glass (7), Johnathan Kovacevic (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:36Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Laba (11), Tye Kartye (6)NYR 2 – 1 NJ · NYR 39% → 55% +16NYR 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P119:47Dawson Mercer Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (24), Arseny Gritsyuk (16)NYR 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 42% → 60% +18NJ 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P215:52Jack Hughes Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (33), Dougie Hamilton (17)NYR 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 57% → 78% +20NJ 57% → 78%+20 pts
- P216:53Will Cuylle Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (11), Taylor Raddysh (8)NYR 3 – 3 NJ · NYR 22% → 43% +21NYR 22% → 43%+21 pts
- P38:05Nico Hischier Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (34), Jack Hughes (30)NYR 3 – 4 NJ · NJ 55% → 83% +28NJ 55% → 83%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 62%
- ML NYR +150 / NJ -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 57.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NJ -161
- NYR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.4 – 3.1 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +1 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +52 Elo | NJ 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 62.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.9% | Shot share | 51.7%9th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.8%18th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 15th of 3215–16 | Road vs home | 15–1518th of 32 |
| 6th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 32 |
| 26th of 321467 | Elo rating | 147524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–31 | 21–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 6–31 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 28–33 | 25–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 5–3 NJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.