Philadelphia Flyers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Emil AndraeGoals1
- Carl GrundstromAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints1
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Quinn HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Travis Konecny Goal Snap Shot1–0
- P37:58Owen Tippett Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Carl Grundstrom (4), Travis Sanheim (22)2–2
- P217:50Kirill Kaprizov Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (29), Quinn Hughes (60)1–2
- P28:39Matt Boldy Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (27), Quinn Hughes (59)1–1
- P118:35Emil Andrae Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (32)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:35Emil Andrae Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (32)PHI 1 – 0 MIN · PHI 36% → 54% +17PHI 36% → 54%+17 pts
- P28:39Matt Boldy Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (27), Quinn Hughes (59)PHI 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 42% → 62% +20MIN 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P217:50Kirill Kaprizov Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (29), Quinn Hughes (60)PHI 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 60% → 80% +20MIN 60% → 80%+20 pts
- P37:58Owen Tippett Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Carl Grundstrom (4), Travis Sanheim (22)PHI 2 – 2 MIN · PHI 16% → 42% +27PHI 16% → 42%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 66%
- ML PHI +185 / MIN -225
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 67.9%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -197
- PHI +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.3 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −7 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +130 Elo | MIN 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 91.2%2nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 17th of 3215–16 | Road vs home | 19–1412th of 32 |
| 4th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 28th of 321464 | Elo rating | 15436th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–25 | 35–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 30–14 | 23–5 |
| Overs–unders | 34–30 | 37–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.