Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Ryan LeonardGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Ryan LeonardPoints1
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Noah CatesAssists2
- Owen TippettPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:57Owen Tippett Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (25), Noah Cates (22)1–4
- P37:17Jamie Drysdale Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (21), Cam York (20)1–3
- P212:13Trevor Zegras Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (18), Carl Grundstrom (3)1–2
- P24:23Travis Konecny Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (21), Alex Bump (1)1–1
- P19:51Ryan Leonard Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (27), Pierre-Luc Dubois (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:51Ryan Leonard Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (27), Pierre-Luc Dubois (3)WSH 1 – 0 PHI · WSH 56% → 71% +15WSH 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P24:23Travis Konecny Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (21), Alex Bump (1)WSH 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 28% → 45% +18PHI 28% → 45%+18 pts
- P212:13Trevor Zegras Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (18), Carl Grundstrom (3)WSH 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 46% → 67% +21PHI 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P37:17Jamie Drysdale Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (21), Cam York (20)WSH 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 76% → 93% +17PHI 76% → 93%+17 pts
- P318:57Owen Tippett Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (25), Noah Cates (22)WSH 1 – 4 PHI · PHI >99% → 100% +0PHI >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 56%
- ML WSH -142 / PHI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 55.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -129
- PHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 2.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −16 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +37 Elo | WSH 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 49.5%17th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 26th of 3212–19 | Road vs home | 14–1827th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Elo rating | 145928th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–31 | 38–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–24 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 29–14 |
| Overs–unders | 30–35 | 34–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–2 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.