Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Olli MaattaAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints1
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals2
- Justin SourdifAssists2
- Justin SourdifPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:44Ryan Leonard Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Justin Sourdif (16)3–7
- P317:14Ethen Frank Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (3), Hendrix Lapierre (9)3–6
- P311:15Justin Sourdif Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none3–5
- P310:52Connor McMichael Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none3–4
- P218:55Yegor Sharangovich Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (14)3–3
- P217:39Blake Coleman Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (23), Yan Kuznetsov (7)2–3
- P216:08Matvei Gridin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (3), Ryan Strome (8)1–3
- P117:43Connor McMichael Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (15), Anthony Beauvillier (11)0–3
- P19:13Tom Wilson Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (23), Dylan Strome (34)0–2
- P12:46Hendrix Lapierre Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (17), Declan Chisholm (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:46Hendrix Lapierre Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (17), Declan Chisholm (6)CGY 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 63% → 76% +13WSH 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P217:39Blake Coleman Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (23), Yan Kuznetsov (7)CGY 2 – 3 WSH · CGY 8% → 21% +13CGY 8% → 21%+13 pts
- P218:55Yegor Sharangovich Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (14)CGY 3 – 3 WSH · CGY 21% → 42% +21CGY 21% → 42%+21 pts
- P310:52Connor McMichael Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 3 – 4 WSH · WSH 55% → 86% +30WSH 55% → 86%+30 pts
- P311:15Justin Sourdif Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 3 – 5 WSH · WSH 86% → 98% +12WSH 86% → 98%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 63%
- ML CGY +160 / WSH -192
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 63.1%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -171
- CGY +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +6 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +93 Elo | WSH 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 50.8%12th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%8th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 32nd of 329–21 | Road vs home | 19–1410th of 32 |
| 28th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 29th of 321456 | Elo rating | 150712th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–29 | 33–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 19–24 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 32–30 | 29–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 1–4 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.