Columbus Blue Jackets at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals1
- Mason MarchmentAssists1
- Adam FantilliPoints1
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Sam ReinhartAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:20Sam Reinhart Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (12), Mike Benning (1)1–2
- P31:28Sam Bennett Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (32), Mackie Samoskevich (16)1–1
- P213:01Adam Fantilli Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (18)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:01Adam Fantilli Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (18)CBJ 1 – 0 FLA · CBJ 52% → 73% +20CBJ 52% → 73%+20 pts
- P31:28Sam Bennett Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (32), Mackie Samoskevich (16)CBJ 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 24% → 48% +24FLA 24% → 48%+24 pts
- OT2:20Sam Reinhart Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (12), Mike Benning (1)CBJ 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 49% → 96% +46FLA 49% → 96%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 53%
- ML CBJ -125 / FLA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- CBJ: Elo 41.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -114
- FLA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.3 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +5 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +62 Elo | FLA 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 52.4%5th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 12th of 3216–16 | Road vs home | 17–1617th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 15238th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–28 | 21–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 9–37 |
| Underdog | 28–13 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 33–31 | 37–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–7 FLA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.