Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Justin FaulkGoals1
- Justin FaulkAssists1
- Justin FaulkPoints2
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals2
- Matthew TkachukAssists2
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:45Carter Verhaeghe Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (11), Sam Bennett (26)3–4
- P318:30Carter Verhaeghe Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (10)3–3
- P36:32Marco Kasper Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (13), Justin Faulk (22)3–2
- P35:10Niko Mikkola Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Vinnie Hinostroza (8)2–2
- P212:59Justin Faulk Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Andrew Copp (29)2–1
- P23:54Patrick Kane Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (37), Alex DeBrincat (31)1–1
- P19:48Vinnie Hinostroza Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Boqvist (6), Gustav Forsling (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:59Justin Faulk Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Andrew Copp (29)DET 2 – 1 FLA · DET 49% → 70% +21DET 49% → 70%+21 pts
- P35:10Niko Mikkola Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Vinnie Hinostroza (8)DET 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 24% → 51% +27FLA 24% → 51%+27 pts
- P36:32Marco Kasper Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (13), Justin Faulk (22)DET 3 – 2 FLA · DET 49% → 78% +28DET 49% → 78%+28 pts
- P318:30Carter Verhaeghe Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (10)DET 3 – 3 FLA · FLA 1% → 50% +49FLA 1% → 50%+49 pts
- P319:45Carter Verhaeghe Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (11), Sam Bennett (26)DET 3 – 4 FLA · FLA 50% → >99% +50FLA 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 51%
- ML DET -105 / FLA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- FLA: Elo 54.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.7 – 2.8 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −11 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +31 Elo | FLA 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 52.4%5th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 7th of 3218–14 | Road vs home | 16–1617th of 32 |
| 11th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321507 | Elo rating | 15219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–32 | 21–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–22 | 9–36 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 30–34 | 36–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–5 FLA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.