Florida Panthers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals3
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Matthew TkachukPoints3
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Dylan LarkinAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:08Matthew Tkachuk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P30:35Matthew Tkachuk Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (31), Brad Marchand (27)2–1
- P210:56Alex DeBrincat Goal (33) Batted, assists: Patrick Kane (25), Dylan Larkin (27)1–1
- P111:06Matthew Tkachuk Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (27)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:06Matthew Tkachuk Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (27)FLA 1 – 0 DET · FLA 43% → 59% +16FLA 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P210:56Alex DeBrincat Goal (33) Batted, assists: Patrick Kane (25), Dylan Larkin (27)FLA 1 – 1 DET · DET 35% → 55% +20DET 35% → 55%+20 pts
- P30:35Matthew Tkachuk Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (31), Brad Marchand (27)FLA 2 – 1 DET · FLA 46% → 70% +25FLA 46% → 70%+25 pts
- P318:08Matthew Tkachuk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 3 – 1 DET · FLA 98% → >99% +2FLA 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML FLA +124 / DET -148
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- DET: Elo 58.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -134
- FLA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +60 Elo | DET 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 16th of 3214–15 | Road vs home | 18–1310th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 10th of 321516 | Elo rating | 150715th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–42 | 31–31 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–36 | 7–21 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 36–26 | 30–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 4–4 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.