Detroit Red Wings at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Moritz SeiderGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Moritz SeiderPoints3
DevilsScoring summary
- P310:24Dominik Shine Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (12), Moritz Seider (36)3–0
- P26:37James van Riemsdyk Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (35), Patrick Kane (27)2–0
- P13:20Moritz Seider Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (26), Andrew Copp (28)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:20Moritz Seider Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (26), Andrew Copp (28)DET 1 – 0 NJ · DET 51% → 66% +15DET 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P26:37James van Riemsdyk Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (35), Patrick Kane (27)DET 2 – 0 NJ · DET 69% → 84% +15DET 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P310:24Dominik Shine Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (12), Moritz Seider (36)DET 3 – 0 NJ · DET 97% → >99% +3DET 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML DET -115 / NJ -105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- DET: Elo 53.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- NJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.8 – 2.7 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +23 Elo | DET 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.423rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 51.9%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%20th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 8th of 3217–14 | Road vs home | 16–1516th of 32 |
| 11th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15061st of 32 |
| 17th of 321503 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–32 | 22–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–22 | 7–31 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 30–33 | 26–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–4 NJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.