Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Conor GarlandGoals2
- Sean MonahanAssists2
- Conor GarlandPoints2
Lightning- JJ MoserGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Gage GoncalvesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:28Dante Fabbro Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Elvis Merzlikins (2)5–2
- P34:00Conor Garland Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (21), Zach Werenski (48)4–2
- P216:23J.J. Moser Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (24)3–2
- P211:42Kirill Marchenko Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (27), Zach Werenski (47)3–1
- P26:27Conor Garland Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (14), Sean Monahan (20)2–1
- P25:57Ivan Provorov Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (17), Charlie Coyle (35)1–1
- P113:38Gage Goncalves Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (15), Nikita Kucherov (70)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:57Ivan Provorov Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (17), Charlie Coyle (35)CBJ 1 – 1 TB · CBJ 20% → 37% +16CBJ 20% → 37%+16 pts
- P26:27Conor Garland Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (14), Sean Monahan (20)CBJ 2 – 1 TB · CBJ 37% → 56% +19CBJ 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P211:42Kirill Marchenko Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (27), Zach Werenski (47)CBJ 3 – 1 TB · CBJ 59% → 77% +19CBJ 59% → 77%+19 pts
- P216:23J.J. Moser Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (24)CBJ 3 – 2 TB · TB 19% → 38% +19TB 19% → 38%+19 pts
- P34:00Conor Garland Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (21), Zach Werenski (48)CBJ 4 – 2 TB · CBJ 68% → 88% +20CBJ 68% → 88%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 68%
- ML CBJ +195 / TB -238
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- TB: Elo 70.7%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -208
- CBJ +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +6 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +153 Elo | TB 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 73.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 72.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.82nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.3%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 16th of 3215–16 | Road vs home | 18–106th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 16th of 321505 | Elo rating | 15732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–28 | 30–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 19–32 |
| Underdog | 27–13 | 11–0 |
| Overs–unders | 32–31 | 32–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 4–4 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.