Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Darren RaddyshAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals2
- Tage ThompsonAssists4
- Tage ThompsonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:43Josh Doan Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (15), Rasmus Dahlin (44)7–8
- P314:29Jason Zucker Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Ryan McLeod (33)7–7
- P311:03Rasmus Dahlin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (36), Bowen Byram (25)7–6
- P39:48Brandon Hagel Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (23), Darren Raddysh (41)7–5
- P36:12Sam Carrick Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (21), Michael Kesselring (2)6–5
- P35:46Brayden Point Goal (16) , assists: none6–4
- P30:59Nikita Kucherov Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (29), J.J. Moser (17)5–4
- P217:37J.J. Moser Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Geekie (2)4–4
- P214:46Zemgus Girgensons Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (16), J.J. Moser (16)3–4
- P212:26Nikita Kucherov Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (40)2–4
- P211:07Alex Tuch Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Bowen Byram (24)1–4
- P27:55Corey Perry Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (69), Darren Raddysh (39)1–3
- P25:10Alex Tuch Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Tage Thompson (35), Noah Ostlund (14)0–3
- P22:15Jason Zucker Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (43), Tage Thompson (34)0–2
- P18:26Josh Doan Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (33), Bowen Byram (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:46Zemgus Girgensons Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (16), J.J. Moser (16)TB 3 – 4 BUF · TB 13% → 29% +16TB 13% → 29%+16 pts
- P217:37J.J. Moser Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Geekie (2)TB 4 – 4 BUF · TB 28% → 51% +23TB 28% → 51%+23 pts
- P30:59Nikita Kucherov Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (29), J.J. Moser (17)TB 5 – 4 BUF · TB 51% → 75% +24TB 51% → 75%+24 pts
- P314:29Jason Zucker Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Ryan McLeod (33)TB 7 – 7 BUF · BUF 11% → 50% +38BUF 11% → 50%+38 pts
- P315:43Josh Doan Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (15), Rasmus Dahlin (44)TB 7 – 8 BUF · BUF 50% → 91% +42BUF 50% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / BUF -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- TB: Elo 44.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- BUF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | BUF and TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −30 | +1 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.75 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +38 Elo | BUF 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.08th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 48.1%24th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%3rd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3220–12 | Road vs home | 19–116th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321575 | Elo rating | 15465th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–31 | 37–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 11–0 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 31–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–5 BUF in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.