Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists4
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Maple Leafs- Nick RobertsonGoals1
- William NylanderAssists1
- Nick RobertsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:29Nicholas Robertson Goal (13) Wrap-around, assists: none5–2
- P315:41Brandon Hagel Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (22), Nikita Kucherov (68)5–1
- P115:06Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (67), Jake Guentzel (40)4–1
- P113:48Corey Perry Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (28), Anthony Cirelli (21)3–1
- P112:30Jake Guentzel Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Brayden Point (24), Nikita Kucherov (66)2–1
- P15:36Ryan McDonagh Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (65), Brayden Point (23)1–1
- P14:50Matias Maccelli Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (38)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:50Matias Maccelli Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (38)TB 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 35% → 50% +15TOR 35% → 50%+15 pts
- P15:36Ryan McDonagh Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (65), Brayden Point (23)TB 1 – 1 TOR · TB 50% → 65% +15TB 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P112:30Jake Guentzel Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Brayden Point (24), Nikita Kucherov (66)TB 2 – 1 TOR · TB 64% → 78% +14TB 64% → 78%+14 pts
- P113:48Corey Perry Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (28), Anthony Cirelli (21)TB 3 – 1 TOR · TB 78% → 88% +10TB 78% → 88%+10 pts
- P115:06Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (67), Jake Guentzel (40)TB 4 – 1 TOR · TB 88% → 95% +6TB 88% → 95%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 66%
- ML TB -218 / TOR +180
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- TB: Elo 56.1%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -192
- TOR +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 2.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +5 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +43 Elo | TB 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 46.3%29th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3219–12 | Road vs home | 16–1721st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321571 | Elo rating | 149120th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–31 | 25–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–31 | 7–25 |
| Underdog | 11–0 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 30–30 | 36–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–7 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.