Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals1
- Jake GuentzelAssists1
- Brayden PointPoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Alex IafalloAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:59Kyle Connor Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (46), Alex Iafallo (14)1–4
- P35:34Gustav Nyquist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (13), Tanner Pearson (6)1–3
- P31:52Brayden Point Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (39), Darren Raddysh (38)1–2
- P219:42Mark Scheifele Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (13), Kyle Connor (42)0–2
- P215:31Morgan Barron Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (8), Tanner Pearson (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:31Morgan Barron Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (8), Tanner Pearson (5)TB 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 41% → 63% +22WPG 41% → 63%+22 pts
- P219:42Mark Scheifele Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (13), Kyle Connor (42)TB 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 66% → 85% +19WPG 66% → 85%+19 pts
- P31:52Brayden Point Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (39), Darren Raddysh (38)TB 1 – 2 WPG · TB 13% → 32% +19TB 13% → 32%+19 pts
- P35:34Gustav Nyquist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (13), Tanner Pearson (6)TB 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 71% → 90% +19WPG 71% → 90%+19 pts
- P317:59Kyle Connor Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (46), Alex Iafallo (14)TB 1 – 4 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML TB -205 / WPG +170
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- TB: Elo 56.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -181
- WPG +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 2.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | 0 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +46 Elo | TB 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%20th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 1st of 3219–11 | Road vs home | 13–1627th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149923rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321576 | Elo rating | 150018th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–30 | 27–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–30 | 11–26 |
| Underdog | 11–0 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 33–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–3 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.