Los Angeles Kings at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals2
- Brian DumoulinAssists2
- Brian DumoulinPoints3
Blue Jackets- Conor GarlandGoals2
- Denton MateychukAssists1
- Conor GarlandPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:34Adrian Kempe Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (44), Drew Doughty (13)5–4
- P318:04Kirill Marchenko Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (46), Charlie Coyle (34)4–4
- P310:07Brian Dumoulin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (9), Scott Laughton (5)4–3
- P214:09Adrian Kempe Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (20), Brian Dumoulin (14)3–3
- P212:13Conor Garland Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (16)2–3
- P210:53Denton Mateychuk Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Isac Lundeström (6), Boone Jenner (20)2–2
- P117:35Conor Garland Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (19), Ivan Provorov (18)2–1
- P114:48Artemi Panarin Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Helenius (3)2–0
- P16:46Scott Laughton Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (13), Alex Turcotte (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:53Denton Mateychuk Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Isac Lundeström (6), Boone Jenner (20)LA 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 35% → 56% +21CBJ 35% → 56%+21 pts
- P214:09Adrian Kempe Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (20), Brian Dumoulin (14)LA 3 – 3 CBJ · LA 24% → 45% +20LA 24% → 45%+20 pts
- P310:07Brian Dumoulin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (9), Scott Laughton (5)LA 4 – 3 CBJ · LA 47% → 79% +33LA 47% → 79%+33 pts
- P318:04Kirill Marchenko Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (46), Charlie Coyle (34)LA 4 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 2% → 52% +49CBJ 2% → 52%+49 pts
- OT2:34Adrian Kempe Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (44), Drew Doughty (13)LA 5 – 4 CBJ · LA 48% → 96% +48LA 48% → 96%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 58%
- ML LA +130 / CBJ -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- CBJ: Elo 61.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -140
- LA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.5 – 3.0 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +14 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +79 Elo | CBJ 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.4 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 50.0%15th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 12th of 3215–15 | Road vs home | 17–1414th of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 21st of 321481 | Elo rating | 150812th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–40 | 35–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–31 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 29–33 | 31–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–2 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.