Montreal Canadiens at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals2
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints3
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Brandt ClarkeAssists2
- Brandt ClarkePoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:27Nick Suzuki Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (29), Cole Caufield (27)4–3
- P314:38Juraj Slafkovský Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (53), Nick Suzuki (53)3–3
- P36:44Alex Laferriere Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (26), Trevor Moore (10)2–3
- P217:31Scott Laughton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Wright (1), Brandt Clarke (25)2–2
- P215:41Juraj Slafkovský Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (52), Alexandre Carrier (13)2–1
- P23:09Jake Evans Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (6), Zachary Bolduc (16)1–1
- P114:12Anze Kopitar Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (30), Artemi Panarin (43)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:41Juraj Slafkovský Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (52), Alexandre Carrier (13)MTL 2 – 1 LA · MTL 49% → 71% +22MTL 49% → 71%+22 pts
- P217:31Scott Laughton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Wright (1), Brandt Clarke (25)MTL 2 – 2 LA · LA 28% → 51% +23LA 28% → 51%+23 pts
- P36:44Alex Laferriere Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (26), Trevor Moore (10)MTL 2 – 3 LA · LA 51% → 78% +28LA 51% → 78%+28 pts
- P314:38Juraj Slafkovský Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (53), Nick Suzuki (53)MTL 3 – 3 LA · MTL 11% → 50% +39MTL 11% → 50%+39 pts
- P315:27Nick Suzuki Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (29), Cole Caufield (27)MTL 4 – 3 LA · MTL 50% → 91% +41MTL 50% → 91%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 51%
- ML MTL -105 / LA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- LA: Elo 55.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -104
- MTL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.2 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −2 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +37 Elo | LA 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 50.0%14th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 10th of 3216–15 | Road vs home | 10–2130th of 32 |
| 8th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 13th of 321509 | Elo rating | 148321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–27 | 22–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–23 | 7–30 |
| Underdog | 27–4 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 39–22 | 28–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 0–5 LA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.