Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Lightning- Charle-Edouard D'AstousGoals1
- Brayden PointAssists1
- Yanni GourdePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:29Logan Stankoven Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (22)4–2
- P39:18Jordan Martinook Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (32), Mike Reilly (8)3–2
- P215:31Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Point (27), Gage Goncalves (14)2–2
- P214:10Yanni Gourde Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (16), Pontus Holmberg (10)2–1
- P117:28Sebastian Aho Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (34), K'Andre Miller (26)2–0
- P10:36Andrei Svechnikov Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (44), Sean Walker (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:36Andrei Svechnikov Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (44), Sean Walker (15)CAR 1 – 0 TB · CAR 46% → 60% +15CAR 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P117:28Sebastian Aho Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (34), K'Andre Miller (26)CAR 2 – 0 TB · CAR 63% → 78% +15CAR 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P214:10Yanni Gourde Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (16), Pontus Holmberg (10)CAR 2 – 1 TB · TB 15% → 31% +16TB 15% → 31%+16 pts
- P215:31Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Point (27), Gage Goncalves (14)CAR 2 – 2 TB · TB 31% → 53% +22TB 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P39:18Jordan Martinook Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (32), Mike Reilly (8)CAR 3 – 2 TB · CAR 48% → 79% +31CAR 48% → 79%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML CAR +110 / TB -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- TB: Elo 58.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- CAR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +5 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +60 Elo | TB 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.83rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.2% | Shot share | 51.1%11th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 90.4%8th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 6th of 3217–13 | Road vs home | 19–117th of 32 |
| 24th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 4th of 321560 | Elo rating | 15693rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–41 | 31–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 20–33 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 11–0 |
| Overs–unders | 36–29 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–5 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.