Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints1
Lightning- Gage GoncalvesGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Jake GuentzelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:55Jake Guentzel Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (25)1–4
- P316:22Gage Goncalves Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Brayden Point (26), Nikita Kucherov (72)1–3
- P37:05J.T. Compher Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Alex DeBrincat (32), Patrick Kane (28)1–2
- P31:35Gage Goncalves Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Brayden Point (25)0–2
- P20:49Jake Guentzel Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (71), Corey Perry (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:49Jake Guentzel Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (71), Corey Perry (18)DET 0 – 1 TB · TB 63% → 78% +15TB 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P31:35Gage Goncalves Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Brayden Point (25)DET 0 – 2 TB · TB 81% → 94% +13TB 81% → 94%+13 pts
- P37:05J.T. Compher Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Alex DeBrincat (32), Patrick Kane (28)DET 1 – 2 TB · DET 4% → 16% +13DET 4% → 16%+13 pts
- P316:22Gage Goncalves Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Brayden Point (26), Nikita Kucherov (72)DET 1 – 3 TB · TB 94% → >99% +6TB 94% → >99%+6 pts
- P316:55Jake Guentzel Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (25)DET 1 – 4 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 66%
- ML DET +180 / TB -218
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TB: Elo 63.2%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -192
- DET +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +4 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +94 Elo | TB 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.82nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 51.1%11th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%8th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 8th of 3218–15 | Road vs home | 18–117th of 32 |
| 11th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 14th of 321505 | Elo rating | 15662nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–32 | 30–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–22 | 19–33 |
| Underdog | 26–10 | 11–0 |
| Overs–unders | 31–34 | 33–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–3 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.